Iran inflation could reach 40pc this year as economy shrinks further

Iran inflation could reach 40pc this year as economy shrinks further

Brent hit a six-month high above $75 last week because of tightening global markets amid US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela coupled with Russian oil export problems stemming from a contaminated pipeline.

Oil has already rallied about 40 percent since the beginning of the year mainly helped by a deal between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russian Federation to curb output. The supply concerns lead to higher oil prices.

Earlier in April, Moscow signalled OPEC and its allies could raise oil output from June because of improving market conditions and falling stockpiles.

If Saudis stopped their taps tomorrow (something they can do at any time), it would slow the flow of oil and jack prices high enough to send the global economy into a downturn.


"It may remain the same, or could change up or down, I don't know".

Analysts and market participants have downplayed the comments since details were unclear.

India is the third-largest oil consumer in the world, and almost 80 percent of its oil demand is met with imported oil.

The IMF expects a 6-percent retraction in economic growth in 2019 - and that does not factor in the recent announcement by the United States that waivers on Iranian oil exports will expire next week, further deepening Iran's economic recession.


Iran should work to eliminate the gap that now exists between the market exchange rate and the official exchange rate, said Azour. These figures are moderate at the moment, the demand is healthy, there is nothing to worry about...

Azour said one of the most pressing issues facing Iran with the impact of U.S. sanctions was the need to align the official currency exchange rates for the Iranian rial with black market rates.

Saudi oil production until the end of May would be below the level set in the global deal: "significantly less" than 10 million bpd, with exports below 7 million bpd next month, Falih said. "The Kingdom could increase output by 500 million barrels per day (bpd) and still be in compliance with the OPEC+ deal for the month of May".

"Over the past week we have seen heavy, sweet crude differentials rising markedly, as the long-awaited IMO impact has started to leave its mark on the crude market", JBC Energy said in a note on Monday.


There has been wide speculations as to what approach India will take, with plenty of op-eds claiming that they will stand in defiance of the United States and plenty claiming just the opposite, that they will fill in the Iranian oil gap with crude oil supply from other oil-producing nations.

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